Donald Wuebbles, Professor and Executive Coordinator, School of Earth, Society, and Environment; Matt VanderZalm, International Engagement, Communications, and Protocol

Imagine the state of Florida completely under water. Picture prolonged heat waves the likes of which humans haven’t seen. Consider the possibility of hurricanes like Katrina becoming more and more frequent.

According to most scientists, these are all possible scenarios resulting from the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. This climate change is now being recognized by scientists as one of the most critical issues facing humanity and our planet in the 21st century. Since it’s beginning in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has coordinated scientists from around the world to study this potentially catastrophic problem.

Expert researchers freely donate their time to prepare regular assessments of the latest scientific understanding regarding the Earth’s climate system and the contribution of human activities to climate change, plus assess the resulting impacts on world economies, social and ecological systems, and analyze potential policy responses. Four major assessments of climate change have resulted over the last 17 years, with the latest published in 2007.

Eight University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign researchers have contributed to these IPCC-assessments on climate change, and thus shared in the Nobel Peace Prize that was awarded to the IPCC in December of 2007, along with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. This honor was bestowed for the IPCC and Gore’s efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change.

About the IPCC, the Nobel committee specifically stated that “Through the scientific reports it has issued over the past two decades, the IPCC has created an ever-broader informed consensus about the connection between human activities and global warming.”

The Prize was also awarded for their contributions in laying the foundation for the measures that are needed to counteract such change. As former Vice President Gore noted, “the climate crisis is not a political issue, it is a moral and spiritual challenge to all of humanity.”

The University of Illinois scientists who were honored for their contributions to the IPCC assessments over the last two decades all have strong ties to the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. They feel quite honored to have been part of the IPCC process, and honored that their efforts were recognized when the IPCC was awarded such an honor, according to Illinois professor Donald Wuebbles, who is also director of the School of Earth, Society, and Environment.

Wuebbles, an expert in radiative transfer processes and in climate-chemistry interactions, co-developed the concept for comparing heat-trapping gases and particles, called Global Warming Potentials, being used in national and international policy development related to climate change. Wuebbles was a convening lead author on the first two IPCC assessments (1990, 1995), a lead author on three chapters of the special IPCC assessment on the role of aviation in climate change (1999), and has been an expert reviewer on the other IPCC assessments.

”Working on the IPCC assessments is very time consuming, involving careful consideration of all that is known and understood about your particular focus area for the assessment,” Wuebbles said. “Although the process is grueling, we recognize that it is important to get the right message to policymakers, who then determine the development of national and international policy to resolve the great concerns about global warming impacts on our planet.”

Another contributor, Illinois professor Michael Schlesinger, is an expert in numerical modeling of the climate system. His IPCC contributions include calculations of projected changes in global surface temperature over the coming century. He was a contributing author on the first IPCC assessment in 1990, on a special supplementary assessment update report in 1992, and on the special report on human emissions scenarios in 2000.  Schlesinger said he did not expect such an honor.

“I was very surprised. I knew Mr. Gore was in the running, but I was not aware the IPCC was being considered,” Schlesinger said. “It didn’t dawn on me it would include those of us who worked on the assessments, and when I did find out, I was dumbfounded.”

Schlesinger said he was initially a “climate change agnostic,” suggesting in a 1991 New York Times article “the urgency is probably somewhat less than some people have tended to make it appear." However, after years of continued research, he said caution over climate change has "become my mantra."

Emeritus Professor John Walsh, another Illinois researcher who made contributions to the assessments, is an expert in Arctic and Antarctic climate. For the IPCC, he has conducted syntheses of observed and projected future climate impacts on polar temperature, precipitation, sea ice, the ice sheets, snow cover and permafrost. He was a lead author for the latest 2007 report and was also a reviewer for the assessment reports of 1995 and 2001.Walsh agreed that the assessments were “indeed a huge effort.”

“The report was over three years in the making.  Each chapter received two rounds of review, with typically over 1000 comments/criticisms/suggestions from reviewers,” Walsh said. “Also, the typical IPCC lead author (5-8 per chapter) put in about four trips to writing workshops all over the world.  My guess is that the average author's IPCC travels added up to about 25,000 miles.”

He called the honor “gratifying,” noting that awareness of the seriousness of global warming has increased significantly. “Many participating scientists, including myself, feel fortunate that we were able to contribute to the IPCC at a rather unique time in the history of climate science,” Walsh said.
Also honored for their work:
Illinois professor Atul Jain, whose ISAM carbon cycle model has become a standard tool for evaluating the effects of increases in carbon dioxide emissions on the atmosphere.  He was a lead author on several IPCC special reports and contributing author for the assessment reports of 1995 and 2001.

Research scientist Katharine Hayhoe, who is also a professor at Texas Tech University, is an expert in assessing the impacts of future climate change on a broad range of sectors including water resources, human health, and ecosystems, at the regional level. She was an expert reviewer for the 2007 assessment.

Illinois research scientist Dr. Ken Patten, an expert in atmospheric chemistry and modeling, was a contributing author for the IPCC assessment of 1995.
Adjunct professor Dr. Natalie Andronova, now at the University of Michigan, is an expert in atmospheric chemistry processes and climate sensitivity, and was a contributing author on several IPCC special reports based on her work with Schlesinger.

Illinois research scientist Dr. William Chapman, who is also an expert in Arctic climate change. For the IPCC 2007 report he worked extensively with Walsh to quantify polar changes.